Not to Worry, the Future Still Looks Bright
KFM Update
We hope you had a great Second Quarter of 2022 and a wonderful Fourth of July celebration as well. Summer is in full gear with many of our clients pursuing travel once again. For those that are, we hope the twists and turns of travel treat you well. We applaud you for moving forward reconnecting with family and friends, despite the lingering effects of Covid 19.
We have continued to see an uptick in face-to-face meetings at our Fullerton office over last quarter. As a reminder, we have plenty of space to be socially distant for face-to-face meetings. Virtual meetings are still an option should you prefer. Your safety and comfort are our number one priority collectively with the safety of our Team. We can accommodate either way to facilitate what works best for you.
Next time you pay us a visit, the snack bar and coffee maker are back in business in the KFM Family Room. We look forward to seeing you soon!
Legislative Update
Just like last quarter, there is not much to report on the legislative front. We do know the House passed the Securing a Strong Retirement Act of 2022, known as Secure Act 2.0, on March 29th. The Senate Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee passed by voice vote on June 14th the Retirement Improvement and Savings Enhancement to Supplement Healthy Investments for the Nest Egg, or Rise & Shine Act, which is expected to become part of the Senate’s Secure 2.0 legislation. These new packages of proposals have a long way to go before enactment. Hopefully there will be some value to the new bills beyond the creativity of their titles.
We are also hopeful more clarity will come from Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) for inherited IRAs. For those of you that have inherited IRAs received after January 1, 2020, the inherited IRA must be fully exhausted by the 10th year. There has been great debate and confusion around whether RMDs are required for inherited IRAs or not. We are hopeful the proposals that are making their way through the government branches will provide clarity before the end of the year. We will keep you updated as we learn more.
Capital Markets Update
Although the economic slowdown has already started, not to worry, the outlook for the future is still quite bright.
If you are taking a summer vacation, you may also consider taking a vacation from your portfolio statements, which are available now in your Client Portal. The second quarter results are final, and the capital markets continue to be lackluster in 2022. The second quarter saw the major benchmarks fall more than 10% for the quarter on top of the negative first quarter results.
While many of our clients have been pleasantly surprised that their declines “were not as bad” as they thought, this is not nearly as rough as 2000 to 2002, 2008 to 2009 or most recently 2020. Just a quick reminder that we saw the capital markets decline well over 40% during those time periods. Staying the course was not easy, but it was the right call. This time is no different.
Recession has been one of the more popular search requests in recent months. At KFM, we believe we have already entered a recession. While we do not hold the proverbial crystal ball, many of our business owner and business executive clients have headed the same sentiment. This seems to be consistent with the financial press (remember, we do not advocate this). It’s mixed with some analysts stating recession now, others say next year and only a few are brave enough to say a recession will be avoided.
Regardless of where you stand, the capital markets have always been a leading indicator to the economy. Great evidence to this anomaly was 2020 at the start of the pandemic. The market knew in advance the economy would head into recession with stocks retreating in advance through the end of March 2020. Equally, the market knew the economy would recover with stocks advancing significantly from April 2020 to December 2021.
So, what’s happening now, just two years removed from the last US recession? We believe the negative stock returns and aggressive US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes have many if not all investors confused. The financial markets have been “rolling over” as investors grapple with which stocks to own with higher interest rates and high inflation. The great news in all of this: by staying the course and rebalancing as normal, our portfolios are positioned for the recovery. Remember, by the time a recession is called, the worst of its impact on markets has usually passed. Which means the same is true for the other side. By the time we are told we are out of the recession, the capital markets will have recovered quite nicely.
While we do not have the proverbial crystal ball, we remain committed to your long-term goals knowing brighter days are forthcoming. As we’ve discussed in your most recent update meetings, we believe the right course of action is to rebalance when appropriate and to stay the course. Like all of the other downturns we’ve faced, the best course of action has been no action. Don’t let the current capital markets get you down.
Our recommendation is to focus on what matters most in your life. We look forward to hearing all about it in our upcoming meetings with you. Thank you for your continued trust and confidence. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you have any additional questions or concerns.
Recession Defined: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) identifies phases of the business cycle using a bevy of indicators, such as consumption and income data, employment rates, and gross domestic product growth. None of these measures has been consistently dominant in the determination of economic conditions, and past US recessions have certainly come in all shapes and sizes. Recessions are therefore named retroactively, with the benefit of hindsight (and additional economic data that may be available with a lag).
Because recessions are proclaimed with a delay, rather than in real time, markets are often on the way toward a recovery by the time of the announcement. As shown in Exhibit 1, the stock market had already bottomed out prior to the announcement month in two-thirds of recessions since 1980 (Prior to 1979, the NBER did not formally announce recessions). In 2020’s recession, for example, the Market’s low point came in March, three months before the announcement in June 2020. The takeaway for investors? If and when a recession is declared, we think the most sensible approach is to remain disciplined with one’s asset allocation, also known as, “staying the course”.
EXHIBIT 1 Fret Lag: Recession announcements vs. US stock market lows
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.